Note: These files are included in the same folder as this planning tool.
Before You Start
Read the Executive Summary first to understand the current situation.
The 2025 data shows a -7% decline, with 84% of the loss coming from Non-Dealers.
Understanding this context is critical before setting 2026 targets.
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Recommended Planning Flow
STEP 1
Executive Summary
Review 2025 performance, understand what drove the decline, and see where dealers vs non-dealers contributed.
▸ READ ONLY - No decisions yet
STEP 2
Growth Layers
Set your top-down growth expectation. Use sliders to allocate growth between New Products, Dealer Incentives, Field Sales, and Promotions.
▸ DECISION - Set overall growth ambition
STEP 3
Dealer x Supplier Targets
Set specific targets for each Dealer × Supplier combination. Grey numbers show 2025 baseline, input boxes are your 2026 targets.
▸ DECISION - Detailed target allocation
STEP 4
Regional View
Validate targets against geographic distribution. See penetration index to identify under/over-served regions.
▸ VALIDATION - Check regional balance
STEP 5
Supplier Analysis
Compare your targets vs strategic recommendations. Classifications suggest growth based on Unit and Price/Unit trends.
▸ VALIDATION - Check supplier alignment
STEP 6
P&L Calculator
See the profit impact of your targets. Adjust COGS and operating costs to calculate expected margins.
▸ VALIDATION - Profit viability
STEP 7
Salesperson Targets
Allocate field sales targets to individual salespeople. Set goals based on their regional coverage and capacity.
▸ FINAL STEP - Assign individual targets
Iterative Process
This is not a one-way flow. After reviewing Regional, Supplier, or P&L views, you may need to go back to
Growth Layers or Dealer x Supplier Targets to adjust. The goal is to find a balanced plan that is:
Ambitious but achievable
Balanced across regions and suppliers
Aligned with strategic supplier classifications
Profitable at the P&L level
Understanding the Data
Dealer x Supplier Targets
Grey numbers
2025 Baseline (actual sales)
Input boxes
Your 2026 Target (editable)
Green totals
Growth vs baseline
Supplier Classifications
DOUBLE WIN
Units ↑ Price ↑ → Push +15%
VOLUME LED
Units ↑ Price flat → +12%
PRICE COLLAPSE
Price ↓↓ → Recover pricing +10%
VOLUME COLLAPSE
Units ↓↓ → Stabilize +5%
STABLE
Both flat → Steady +8%
Regional Penetration Index
Formula: (% XYZ Distribution Sales) ÷ (% Market Customers)
Index < 0.8
High Growth Potential
Index 0.8-1.2
Balanced Coverage
Index > 1.2
Maxed Out Region
Save & Export
Auto-save is ON: Your changes are saved automatically as you edit. Download Backup: Saves a file you can restore later if browser data is cleared. Export to Excel: Creates a spreadsheet you can print, share, or edit. Full Report: Opens a comprehensive PDF-ready report with all your targets.
Data Period: Jan-Nov 2025 Actuals | YoY = Jan-Nov 2024 vs 2025 | Full Year = Estimate with Dec projection
December Projection Method:
Full Year 2025 Estimate = Jan-Nov Actuals + December projection.
December is projected based on historical seasonality where December is typically lower than November.
Dealers: Dec 2025 = 85% of Nov 2025 sales Non-Dealers: Dec 2025 = 70% of Nov 2025 sales Based on Dec/Nov ratio from 2024 historical data, per CEO guidance.
€5.76M
2025 Sales (Jan-Nov)
-5% vs 2024
€6.29M
2025 Full Year Est
-7% vs 2024
€6.92M
2026 Target
+10% Growth
€10.68
Dealer €/Unit (2025)
+19% vs 2024
84%
Decline from Non-Dealers
€311K of €369K
The Real Story: Jan-Nov 2024 vs Jan-Nov 2025
Channel
2024 Sales
2025 Sales
Change
% of Decline
Dealers
€5,323,569
€5,398,937
+1%
-
Non-Dealers
€727,704
€362,361
-50%
100%
TOTAL
€6,051,273
€5,761,298
-5%
100%
Key Insight: Dealers are actually doing WELL! Sales +1% with +19% higher prices. Non-Dealers caused 84% of the decline - likely lost equipment deals (Supplier 4, Supplier 13, Supplier 12).
Historical Trend
2026 Growth Target Breakdown
Key Highlights
Dealer Channel (94%)
2025 YTD Performance:
+19% Price per unit increase
+1% Sales (growing!)
Top 3 (2025):
1. Dealer 1 (Region A) - €1.16M
2. Dealer 2 - €831K
3. Dealer 3 (Region C) - €705K
2026 Growth Target
Total Target:€6.92M (+10%)
Growth Needed:€629K
Growth Sources (from Growth Layers):
• New Products: €600K
• Dealer Incentives: €150K
• Field Expansion: €75K
• Promotions: €150K
Warning: Non-Dealer Alert
84% of total decline
-50% Sales (€728K to €363K)
-38% Price/Unit
Likely Cause:
Lost high-ticket equipment deals
Supplier 4, Supplier 13, Supplier 12 equipment
Board Executive Summary +
XYZ Distribution Strategic Analysis
Board Strategy Meeting - 2026
Headline Metrics (Jan-Nov Comparison)
Metric
2024
2025
Change
Assessment
Total Revenue
EUR 6,051,273
EUR 5,761,298
-5%
DECLINING
Total Volume (Units)
581,963
487,250
-16%
ALERT
Avg Price per Unit
EUR 10.40
EUR 11.82
+14%
COMPENSATING
Dealer Channel
EUR 5,323,569
EUR 5,398,937
+1%
FLAT
Non-Dealer Channel
EUR 727,704
EUR 362,361
-50%
COLLAPSED
Price Tier Breakdown: Where Did Volume Go?
Price Tier
Definition
2024 Volume
2025 Volume
Volume Change
Value Change
Budget
EUR 0-4.50
399,271
301,616
-24%
-17%
Standard
EUR 4.50-15
92,416
95,367
+3%
+1%
Premium
EUR 15-75
93,343
91,033
-2%
+2%
High-Value
EUR 75+
6,105
5,897
-3%
-9%
TOTAL
581,963
487,250
-16%
-5%
Sales Value by Price Tier: Where Did Revenue Come From?
Price Tier
Definition
2024 Sales (EUR)
2025 Sales (EUR)
Value Change
% of 2024
% of 2025
Budget
EUR 0-4.50
277,181
228,876
-17%
6.5%
5.6%
Standard
EUR 4.50-15
519,016
525,426
+1%
12.2%
12.8%
Premium
EUR 15-75
1,856,798
1,895,184
+2%
43.7%
46.2%
High-Value
EUR 75+
1,591,573
1,450,307
-9%
37.5%
35.4%
TOTAL
4,244,568
4,099,793
-3%
100%
100%
KEY INSIGHT: Budget tier = 61% of VOLUME but only 6% of REVENUE.
Premium + High-Value = 20% of volume but 81% of revenue. This is where the money is.
Key Strategic Findings
1. BUDGET TIER VOLUME COLLAPSED BUT LIMITED REVENUE IMPACT:
Volume down 24% (97,655 fewer units) - this is where the volume loss happened
BUT Budget tier only contributes 6% of total revenue
Revenue impact: -EUR 72K (from EUR 416K to EUR 344K)
2. PREMIUM TIER IS THE REVENUE ENGINE - AND IT GREW:
Premium tier (EUR 15-75) contributes 46% of total revenue
Value grew +2% (EUR 2.79M to EUR 2.85M) despite -2% volume decline
This shows PRICING POWER in the core revenue segment
3. HIGH-VALUE TIER DECLINED - THIS MATTERS:
High-Value (EUR 75+) contributes 35% of revenue
Value dropped -9% (EUR 2.39M to EUR 2.18M) = -EUR 212K loss
Combined with Non-Dealer collapse, suggests equipment/big-ticket slowdown
?How many customers each of the 14 dealers sold to (sell-through data)
?Whether dealers are holding more or less inventory (destocking vs restocking cycles)
?Whether dealers switched some purchases to competitor suppliers
?Whether the overall industry market contracted
?Whether the same customers are buying less, or fewer customers are buying at all
?Why the non-dealer channel collapsed by 50%
What The Volume Decline Could Mean
Possible Explanation
What It Would Mean for XYZ Distribution
Dealers are selling to fewer customers
Market share loss at dealer level - concerning
Same customers are buying less frequently
Demand or consumption decline in the market
Dealers are destocking inventory
Temporary effect - should reverse in coming months
Dealers are sourcing from competitor suppliers
XYZ Distribution losing share with its own dealers - very concerning
Overall market contraction
Industry-wide issue - not unique to XYZ Distribution
Recommendation to Close the Data Gap
Without sell-through data (what dealers actually sold to customers), we cannot determine whether the volume decline is:
a) A market share problem (customers buying from competitors)
b) A market size problem (overall demand declining)
c) A timing problem (dealer inventory cycles)
ACTION: Request sell-through reports from key dealers to understand the true picture.
Even partial data from the top 3-5 dealers would provide valuable insight.
Questions for Board Discussion +
Strategic questions to consider based on the analysis findings
Understanding the Volume Decline
Q1: Do we have visibility into dealer inventory levels?
If dealers are holding less stock, the decline may be temporary. If not, it's a demand issue.
Q2: Have any dealers reported losing end customers to competitors?
Direct feedback from dealers would clarify if this is a market share problem.
Q3: Is the budget tier decline happening across all dealers, or concentrated in specific ones?
Concentrated decline might indicate dealer-specific issues vs. market-wide trends.
Q4: What are competitors doing in the budget consumables segment?
Are they running promotions, offering better terms, or expanding distribution?
Strategic Direction
Q5: Is the shift to premium/higher-priced products an intentional strategy?
If yes, the volume decline in budget may be acceptable. If no, it's a warning sign.
Q6: Should we invest in getting sell-through data from dealers?
This would close the biggest data gap and enable better strategic decisions.
Q7: What is our plan to recover volume in the budget tier?
Options: pricing actions, promotions, dealer incentives, new products, etc.
Q8: Are we at risk of losing the 'everyday relationship' with customers?
If they buy consumables elsewhere, they may eventually buy everything elsewhere.
Non-Dealer Channel Collapse
Q9: What caused the 50% collapse in non-dealer channel revenue?
This channel typically handles equipment/high-value items - what changed?
Q10: Were there specific large orders in 2024 that didn't repeat in 2025?
One-off equipment purchases can skew year-over-year comparisons.
Revenue Contribution Analysis
Q-R1: Given Premium tier is 46% of revenue and grew +2%, should we focus on Premium growth rather than recovering Budget volume?
Budget recovery may not significantly impact revenue, but Premium growth would.
Q-R2: What caused the High-Value tier to decline -9% (-EUR 212K)? Is this related to the Non-Dealer channel collapse?
This is where the real revenue loss occurred - need to understand root cause.
Q-R3: Should we accept Budget tier volume decline if it means customers are buying consumables cheaper elsewhere?
Consider: Is it better to focus on high-margin products where we have pricing power?
Q-R4: Are we seeing a structural shift in the market towards Premium products?
If yes, this could be an opportunity rather than a threat.
2026 Planning
Q11: What volume growth target should we set for 2026?
Given the -16% decline, should the priority be recovery or accepting a new baseline?
Q12: How will we track monthly progress against targets?
Early warning system needed to identify issues before year-end.
Q13: What new product lines could drive both volume and new customer acquisition?
New products can attract new customers and increase basket size with existing ones.
2026 Dealer x Supplier Target Matrix
Supplier Grouping Logic:
24 Main Suppliers: Top 10 (ranked by 2025 sales) shown individually in matrix, remaining 14 aggregated as "Other Main"
73 Other Suppliers: All aggregated as "Other Supp" in matrix
2 New Suppliers: Not in datalist (new 2026 contracts with €0 baseline)
2025 Baseline:€5.90M
2026 Target:€6.50M
Growth:+€593K (+10.0%)
Instructions: Edit the 2026 Target cells to set dealer × supplier targets. Totals update automatically.
Target: Match the Growth Layers ambition (Layer 1 for new products is auto-distributed).
New Suppliers (Yellow Columns): 2025 baseline is €0K (no history - new products). 2026 targets are linked to Layer 1: New Products from the Growth Layers section - the Layer 1 value is split 50/50 between New Supplier 1 and New Supplier 2, distributed proportionally by each dealer's revenue share. Change Layer 1 to update these targets automatically.
Dealer
Grey = 2025 Box = 2026
Supplier 1
Supplier 2
Supplier 3
Supplier 5
Supplier 6
Supplier 7
Supplier 8
Supplier 9
Supplier 10
Supplier 4
Supplier 19
Supplier 20
Supplier 21
Supplier 22
TOTAL
2025 Baseline by Dealer (All 14)
2025 Baseline by Supplier
2026 Growth by Dealer (All 14)
2026 Growth by Supplier
Regional Market Analysis
Penetration Index = (% of XYZ Distribution Sales) ÷ (% of Market Customers).
Index >1.2 = Maxed Out, 0.8-1.2 = Balanced, <0.8 = High Potential for growth.
Total market customers: 13,916 (domestic only). Total XYZ Distribution 2025: €4.19M.
Region
Customers
% of Domestic Market
XYZ Distribution Dealers
2025 Sales
% of XYZ Distribution
Penetration
2026 Target
Insight
Growth Opportunity Insights
Regional Summary
Strategic Growth Layers - 2026 Target Assumptions vs Baseline (2025 full year actual estimated with Dec month projected)
Adjust these growth levers to set your 2026 ambition. Targets cascade down to the Dealer x Supplier Targets (tab 2) and Salesperson Targets (tab 6) allocation.
Top-Down Growth Waterfall
€4.2M
2025 Baseline
+€400K
New Products
+€100K
Dealer Incentives
+€50K
Field Sales
+€100K
Promos
€4.7M
2026 Target
Growth Contribution by Layer (% of Total Growth)
62%
15%
8%
15%
New Products
Dealer Incentives
Field Sales
Promotions
Layer 1: New Products
€400K
€400K62%
New supplier partnerships, product launches (e.g., 2 new brands at €200K each)
Layer 2: Dealer Incentives
€100K
€100K15%
VIP programme, volume discounts, rebates to dealers (XYZ Distribution → Dealers)
Layer 3: Field Sales Expansion
€50K
€50K8%
New sales person, stretched targets, bonus schemes for overachievement
Enter cost assumptions to calculate estimated margins and profitability for 2026.
Cost Inputs
Results
€1.61M
Gross Margin
35%
Gross Margin %
€1.21M
Net Profit
26%
Net Margin %
Profit vs 2025 Est
+€120K improvement
P&L Summary Table
Line Item
2025 Est
2026 Target
Change
Salesperson Targets - 2026 Cascade
FIELD SALES % OF DEALER REVENUE
Set the expected share of field sales attribution to total dealer sales. This determines how dealer targets flow to field salespeople.
%
TOTAL FIELD SALESPERSON TARGETS
Sum of all salesperson targets (calculated or overridden)
€0
EXPECTED FIELD SHARE
Field Sales % x 2026 Strategic Target
€0
VARIANCE
Salesperson targets vs Expected Share
€0
Calculation: Field sales = 69.4% of dealer revenue. Each salesperson's 2026 target is based on their 2025 share of dealer's field sales, applied to dealer's 2026 target.
15 Active Salespeople | 2025 YTD (Jan-Oct): €2,178,491 | Annualized Est: €2,614,189
Override individual targets by editing the orange input cells. Overridden cells turn orange.
How Salesperson Targets are Calculated: Dealer 2026 Target (from Dealer x Supplier Targets) x Field Sales % x Salesperson's % of Dealer = Calc. Target Example: €885K (Dealer) x 69.4% (Field) = €614K x 63.5% (Salesperson Share) = €393K calculated target
Salesperson
Dealer
2025 YTD (Oct)
2025 Est (Ann.)
% of Dealer
Dealer 2026 Target
Calc. Target
2026 Target (Edit)
Growth %
Column Definitions:
% of Dealer: Each salesperson's share of their dealer's field sales (based on 2025 YTD data). For dealers with multiple salespeople, these percentages sum to ~100%.
Dealer 2026 Target: The dealer's total 2026 target from Dealer x Supplier Targets (Tab 2).
Calc. Target: Dealer Target x Field Sales % x Salesperson's % of Dealer.
Total % of Dealer (bottom row): Field Sales Coverage - shows what % of the expected field sales (from all unique dealers listed) is accounted for by tracked salespeople. A value near 100% means all field sales are attributed.
Data Source: Salesperson performance based on Jan-Oct 2025 actuals, annualized to full year. Dealer 2026 targets derived from supplier-level target multipliers in Section 2.